Upgrades/Downgrades/News

July 31 - An incredibly busy day for upgrades/downgrades due mostly to earnings season. Canaccord Genuity was busy upgrading Canyon Energy Services (FRC), Eldorado Gold (ELD) and First Capital Realty (FCR) from hold to buy and Barrick Gold (ABX) from sell to hold. As usual we don't like the gold plays, but Canyon and First Capital are both possible plays. However, we have our eyes elsewhere. On the downgrade front Canaccord Genuity dropped Manitoba Telecom (MBT) from hold to sell, which will no doubt get the stock falling a bit, but with a high dividend and potential if they ever sell All Stream division or get a takeover offer by one of the big three telecom players in Canada it is too risky for a longer-term short. Strongco (SQP) was also dropped from buy to hold but this stock does not have enough of a following or volume to warrant a trade.

Nice 2.79% move in Canyone Services, 4.16% move in First Capital Realty and 11.39% in Eldorado, while Manitoba Telecom fell 2.26%, but we sat on the sidelines on these to concentrat on other names.

July 31 - In the forestry sector Tembec (TMB) was downgraded to reduce from hold and this is a good short play that is actually indicating flat to up at the open, while Norbord was upgraded to buy from hold at Dundee. We like and own Norbord and although the dividend cut is disappointing it is prudent given current lumber prices. A long-term holding of ours we would be looking at trading more here.

Tembec fell 8.08%, declining heavily towards the close after a flat pen.

Norbord closed 6.69% higher for a great day trade.

July 31 - Quebecor was upgraded to outperform from market perform at RBC. This is a definite buy indicating approximately a 1% jump at the open that will no doubt run from there.

Quebecor closed 4.49% higher for another great day trade.

July 31 - Canadian Oil Sands was upgraded to market perform and market sector perform from underperform by Raymong James and National Bank Financial. Do not touch this one, neither brokerage has been very good on their calls lately and the company reported a swing to a big loss.

Canadian Oil Sands closed down 2.1% after bouncing from as low as down 7.34%, but we did not end up shorting this one, again focusing on other plays.

July 30 - Thomson Reuters (TRI) was upgraded to buy from hold at TD. This is definitely a buy even though it already had a nice jump yesterday on earnings.

A nice 3.5% day trade gain on this one.

July 30 - Horizon North Logistics (HNL) and Hudson Bay Minerals (HBM) were upgraded to outperform by National Bank Financial. Both are riskier stocks tied to commodity prices that are indicating a much higher open so we will not go after either of these.

July 30 - Wi-Lan (WIN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity. This is a long-term holding that has been a disappointment but continues to pay a solif dividend so we gladly continue to hold, but will not be adding more here.

July 29 - Toromont Industries (TIH) was upgraded to outperform at both RBC and BMO. This one was moving too much pre-market on earnings and the upgrades so not likely going to be able to get in at a price we like.

July 29 - Aecon Group (ARE) was upgraded to sector outperform from sector perform at Scotiabank. This one we will definitely be getting into.

Day traded this one for a nice 5.5% gain.

July 27 - Another upgrade to Mullen Group raised to market perform from underpeform this time by First Energy. Again since it is already a long-term holding and this is hardly an exuberant upgrade we won't be trading this. Also, Onex Corp was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC. We will look at trading Onex here but on another down day with markets gittery we will be cautious here.

Onex rose 3% even in the nervous markets.

July 24 - Big day of upgrades, but dangerous on a very red day for overall markets. Exco Technologies (XTC) upgradedto buy from hold by Canaccord Genuity, Mullen Group raised to market perform from underpeform by Raymond James, Chemtrade Logistics upgraded to sector outperform from sector perform at Scotiabank, and Superior Plus Corp (SPB) upgraded to buy from hold at TD and outperform from market perform at Raymond James.

We own Mullen Group as a long-term holding and tried playing Superior Plus and Chemtrade as day trades, but both turned into small losses as the overall market sentiment prevailed.

July 22 - NewAlta (NAL) was upgraded to sector outperform from sector perform by Scotiabank. Several drillers were also upgraded to sector perform from sector undertperform: Calfrac Well Services (CFW), Trican Well Services (TCW), Canyon Services Group (FRC) and Savanna Energy Services (SVY). The drillers are indicating a high open but NewAlta is not so this will be a good day trade.

July 22 - Qualcomm rumoured to be considering strategic alternatives such as splitting up the company as well as returning capital to shareholders due to pressure from Jana Partners. This is great news and we are buying pre-market. However, they are also supposedly cutting costs which layoffs, which would likely help the stock price, but may be a sign tomorrow's earnings will disappoint.

As expected the stock fell after earnings, but has rebounded a bit since and appears to be going higher.

July 21 - NewAlta (NAL) was upgraded to sector outperform from sector perform by Scotiabank. Several drillers were also upgraded to sector perform from sector undertperform: Calfrac Well Services (CFW), Trican Well Services (TCW), Canyon Services Group (FRC) and Savanna Energy Services (SVY). The drillers are indicating a high open but NewAlta is not so this will be a good day trade.

New Alta up 7% from the open!

July 21 - Qualcomm rumoured to be considering strategic alternatives such as splitting up the company as well as returning capital to shareholders due to pressure from Jana Partners. This is great news and we are buying pre-market. However, they are also supposedly cutting costs which layoffs, which would likely help the stock price, but may be a sign tomorrow's earnings will disappoint.

Up 1.15% from the open, we will hold into tomorrow but sell before earnings.

July 20 - Home Capital Group (HCG) was upgraded to sector outperform from sector perform by Scotiabank. After a massive sell-off recently this is an attractive entry point and we will definitely be playing this for a quick bounce.

A small 0.8% gain on this day trade that was capped by the broad market sell-off.

July 20 - Another example of why we are happy not to own gold as the price plummeted. Dumping gold is a sign people are confident in the markets and the $US and do not need gold as a hedge. At one point many years ago we bought into the gold as a hedge theory, but then quickly learned that gold doesn't even usually trade strong even under conditions that are supposed to support the price, such as volatility, inflation or as a reserve when currency confidence falls.

July 17 - Another quiet Friday on the analyst front, but a few rating changes. Canamax Energy (CAC) was upgraded to buy from hold at Cannacord Genuity. Trading at $0.54 with thin volume this will probably move, but won't be liquid enough to get a profitable day trade.

July 17 - Kinross Gold (K) was downgraded to sector outperform from outperform by National Bank Financial and downgraded to neutral from buy at Dundee. We owned this stock prior to the Red Back acquisiton that promptly led to a massive sell-off that the company has never recovered from. This was a stock that traded in the 20's, and now trades in the 2's, having written-off many of these assets they paid billions for. This is just another example of why we no longer touch this space. National Bank also downgraded Rubicon Minerals (RMX) to sector outperform from outperformto sector outperform from outperform. This is another stock we traded in the past and at times thought looked attractive for a re-entry, but thankfully we never bothered. These are the epitome of falling knives you don't want to catch,

July 16 - Ag Growth (AFN) was upgraded to sector outperform from sector perform by CIBC. This is a long-term holding of ours and you can bet we are adding more here.

July 16 - SunOpta (SOY) was upgraded to sector outperform from sector perform by Scotiabank. This is a great play on organic foods and healthy eating that we will definitely be trying to get at the open, but pre-market it already look to be bid up a bit.

July 16 - Cervus Equipment (CVL) was downgraded to sector perform from sector outperform by CIBC. The stock has been hit hard recently and the belief is that a dry summer is leading to less demand for their agricultural equipment, however we believe this is minor and temporary. We are long-term holders of the stock and would possibly add more if it pulled back significantly from here.

July 15 - Gildan Activewear (GIL) was downgraded to hold from buy at Desjardins. The target price was raised $1 so this is simply a valuation call. Worth a day trade short on this news, but nothing past that.

July 15 - Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP.UN) was upgraded to neutral from underperform by Credit Suisse. This is worth a trade even though it is only a bump to neutral, it will depend on the opening price though.

July 15 - Westshore Terminals (WTE) was upgraded to buy from hold by Salman partners. We didn't get this update until late in the trading day, so it may have been an intra-day ratings change. The stock started rising rapidly around 10 am but unfortunately we were not aware of this news and therefore unable to get into the trade.

July 15 - The biggest news of the day is the Fed continues to give no clues, other than that they believe to be on track for a rate increase this year, but the Bank of Canada cut rates another quarter of a point. We expected this, as did about half of economists polled. The word recession was not mentioned although a bleak economic picture was painted by Stephen Poloz. This rate cut immediately hit the Canadian dollar, dropping to around $0.7740 versus the $US and it continues to trade around this level. This news is excellent for Canadian equities (and borrowers), especially any companies with revenues in $US. We like: forestry names (Western Forest and Norbord are our favourites and they jumped quickly on the news), healthcare names (Michael Dalsin's US based high-flyers Patient Home and Convalo look great after recent pullbacks) and banks/insurers with US operations (TD and Sun Life would be the best plays here).

July 14 - Literally no upgrades or downgrades that we see so far todayin Canadian markets. Avigilon (AVO) was initiated with a sector outperform at Scotiabank. Nice valuation here and will get a bump, but already being bid up pre-market so we may not make a move on this one today.

July 14 -Earnings seasons has started in earnest this week. As we mentioned yesterday, a copuple of our smaller holdings were due to report after the bell. Neptune Technologies & Bioressources (NTB) reported a bit on the disappointing side, but nothing of major concern after a big jump yesterday. Meanewhile Sirius XM Canada (XSR) is continuing to show positive growth and new agreements (AutoCanada). The stock opened flat, but is starting to rise. Elsewhere, Alimentation Couch-Tarde (ATD.b) reported a slight miss with revenue increasing slightly but adjusted earnings per share missing by a penny. I'ts implying a slightly lower open but results weren't bad enough to warrant a short. Finally, Bankers Petroleum (BNK) announced a slight increase in their production with their second quarter update. We owned this name for a long time and it drastically underperformed. It is very difficult to value these junior oil and gas players, they are very volatile and in a price environment such as this one there is a lot of risk. Just not a name we are comfortable trading right now.

July 14 - In the US big news is Micron Technology (MU) receiving a $22/share takeover offer from China's Tsinghua Unigroup. The US does not like selling companies to Chinese state-owned entities so this does not have as high a probability of proceeding as a domestic takeover would. However the stock looks like it will settle trading directly in the middle of the 20% premium, implying a 10% upside/10% downside. Add to this the fact that Micron was trading around 52 week lows and this could possibly spark other companies to make competing bids and this is an attractive entry point. Some of these technology names are extremely undervalued (our risk reversal options video on SanDisk yesterday is already highly profitable as that stock is also up 4% today) and takeover offers like these can ignite interest in these companies before someone else buys them up at bargain prices. Intel has been considered an appropriate buyer.

We bought options with a far out expiry. The likelihood of this Chinese company gaining approval to takeover Micron at this price is slim, but we believe it does highlight the fact that Micron is undervalued at these levels and may be a catalyst to increase the stock price.

July 13 - Home Capital Group (HCG) just received one of the worst days of analyst actions I've ever seen. It was upgraded to underperform from sector perform at RBC, from buy to hold at TD, from buy to market perform at Cormark Securities, and from outperform to neutral at Macquarie, with all of these and more cutting price targets. These were all results of Friday's after-market Q2 update. These Friday afternoon updates are often done to avoid significant market reaction, but you can't hide from the markets.

Make 100% on this option day trade, unfortunately had we held overnight to Tuesday morning, it would have opened up +500%. That's day trading though, you need to lock in profits and can't look back on missed potential gains.

July 13 - Primero (P) and Detour Gold (DGC) were both upgraded to buy from hold by Desjardins. We have owned both of these names in the past and we aren't opposed to them if you want some gold exposure, but they along with the rest of the gold sector have not benefitted from global uncertainty, inflation fears due to increases in the money supply, or any other factors that were supposed to make gold a great investment, so we aren't going to bother.

July 13 - Neptune Technologies & Bioressources (NTB) and Sirius XM Canada (XSR) are scheduled to release earnings after markets close. Sirius is flat, but Neptune is trading up 7% so the market is anticipating positive earnings. We own small positions in both names and like both at these levels.

July 10 - Canfor Corp (CFP) was upgraded to strong buy from outperform while Canfor Pulp Products (CFX) was downgraded to outperform from strong buy at Raymond James. Just a slight tweek to their ratings between the two companies, but Canfor Corp may be worth a trade on the upgrade on this bullish day, we'll wait to see what it opens at. Also, in the space Western Forest Products (WEF) was downgraded to outperform from strong buy at Raymond James Resolute Forest Products (RFP) was upgraded to sector perform from sector underfperform by Scotiabank

July 10 - Copper Mountain (CUM) was upgraded to outperform from market perform by BMO. Also, Petrowest (PRW) was upgraded to speculative buy from hold by Canaccord Genuity. These are both companies that have been beaten down near 52 week lows, but have great upside if commodity prices rebounc. Trading at low values (Petrowest 0.205 and Copper Mountain 1.00) they are prone to massive swings to the entry point is essential, but we will look at trading both of these and wouldn't be opposed to holding a small position longer-term in either for some great potential upside. Also, at Canaccord Osisko Gold Royalties (OR) was upgraded to buy from hold.

We bough Petrowest at the open for $0.205 (there were fills at $0.20 but we didn't get any) and the stock closed at $0.23. Up 12% from the open!

July 10 - Crescent Point Energy (CPG) filing a preliminary prospectus for the right to issue up to $2.5 billion more in shares, subscription receipts, options, warrants or other debt. This is obviously disappointing news for shareholders who have been frustrated with Crescent Point constantly going to markets, diluting the shares and decreasing the share price. We're still holders of the stock for the long-term with a great dividend and management team, however the share price performance has been disappointing. However, if all of these issuances and takeovers help the company get through the current oil price environment and come out stronger at the end then we support it fully.

July 9 - Plaza Retail REIT (PLZ.un) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform by RBC. We don't generally like the REIT sector, it does not offer great returns and this uncertain interest rate environment does not suit them, however this may be worth a day trade.

July 9 - Chorus Aviation (CHR.b) was downgraded to sector perform from outperform by RBC. This company has really turned things around, we remember it trading in the $2.00 range in 2013 with an absurd nearly 20% dividend that obviously few believed could continue, and now it is more than triple that value while seeming to be able to maintain the dividend comfortably. This seems to mostly a valuation call as it reached 52 week highs, so if you do hold it I wouldn't rush to sell. With a 7% dividend it's definitely not a short and we don't even think it's worth a trade here.

July 9 - It is not an upgrade or downgrade but Scotiabank is initiating coverage on ProMetic Life Sciences (PLI) as a sector outperform. After a massive rise in the healthcare stocks, over 100% in the past year for the TSX healthcare sector, a recent pullback made for some attractive stock prices and ProMetic falls under this category. We do have some long-term exposure to this space with the likes of Patient Home Monitoring (PHM) and Convalo Health (CXV), which are plays on growth and the Michael Dalsin management team, however for other names we approach them more as trades. When a sector is up as much as healthcare is in the past year, there is much more room to pullback so we don't recommend overweighting this sector at these levels, however trading some of the names can be profitable and this is what we will look to do today with ProMetic.

July 8 - Greece has the rest of the week to present a proposal and European leaders are growing increasingly frustrated with Tsipras' government. A Greek exit from the Euro zone has been detailed if necessary and upon analysis it seems that would be the best alternative for everyone involved. Watch our "The Global Economy, the Euro and the Greek Crisis" video https://t.co/ULa76p55tY. We have analyzed statistics and feedback from European residents since the introduction of the Euro and it is clear that the Euro is only widening the gap between the haves (Germany, France) and the have-nots (Greece, Spain and Italy). This is a must watch whether you know nothing about the topic or are a highly educated economist.

July 8 - DataWind (DW) upgraded by National Bank from market perform to outperform after Monday's earnings that initially caused the stock to rise, but it has been brought back down with the rest of the market due to macroeconomic. The company is still losing money, but the low cost tablet market in India is a large one if they can manage to make any decent margins. This upgrade came out late last night, if we could have traded it overnight we would have, but pre-market this stock is being bid up to around $2.20 (+4.76%) so we are not going to chase it here, definitely not on a down day. However, if it pulls back to around yesterday's $2.10 close we would look at a trade from those levels.

July 8 - Jean Coutu (PJC.a) downgraded to reduce from hold at TD. Price targets were also cut basically across the board after yesterday's earnings. Almost all targets implying a negative or miniscule return plus a reduce rating by TD on a down day makes this a definite short. If you didn't short it yesterday after earnings you will still get an opportunity today, we are going to play it with an options trade. Expensers up, profits down and uncertainty with Quebec changes to pharmacist fees all make this stock a sell, or if you can stomach it a possible short (which again we will play short-term with options).

This options day trade was worth a whopping +93.75% return!

July 7 - Denison Mines (DML) has agreed to merge with Fission Uranium (FCU) leading to an upgrade for Denison Mines from hold to speculative buy, and a downgrade for Fission Uranium from strong buy to market perform by Raymon James. Several price targets were cut as the deal will be for Denison stock. Also, according to Raymond James the deal only values Fission's uranium at a third of historical takeover values, so while the stock will obviously get an initial pop on the deal valuation, it is not full value for the company. We trade this space occsasionally, usually with larger name, and don't see anyshort-term trading potential on this news and don't desire either of these companies long-term.

July 7 - Granite REIT (GRT.UN.TO) downgraded to hold from by at Canaccord Genuity. REIT's generally never move enough to be worth day trades and we have no desire to own this, or any other REIT in the current uncertain interest rate environment.

July 7 - Greece is apparently coming back to the table, but without a new proposal. The Finance Minister was asked to resign by all of the EU leaders, including Greek leader Tsipras, so who is the obstacle in negotiations now? It looks as though this entire government is simply in over their heads and a Euro exit may be the best solution. Watch our video on the topic: https://t.co/ULa76p55tY

July 6 - Obviously the big news today is the historic "No" vote win in the Greek referendum by a much greater margin than expected (60%-40%). Polling predicted a very close vote and this was an unexpected result that sends a lot of uncertainty into the markets. This significantly increases the chances of a Greek exit from the Eurozone and actually makes this scenario the most likely end result of this situation in many people's opinions, including ours. This could however be a long process and there is still hope for a short-term bailout package to alleviate some of the pain to the Greek economy. If you look at the Euro since the inception though it is clear that it cannot continue in its current form. Shortly after the introduction of the Euro the standard of living in the peripheral countries fell significantly. On a currency adjusted basis asset values such as home increased significantly (many had their home values double basically overnight), however wages relative to the cose of living fell. Speak to any average peripheral European resident and they will tell you how difficult things have become for them over the past decade. Youth unemployment is over 50% in all of these peripheral countries and this is just not sutainable. Long-term Greece needs to exit the Euro because their economy is too small and too weak to tie themselves to a currency that trades on the strength of countries such as Germany and to a lesser extent France. Whether this will cause contagion that spreads to Spain and Italy, eventually leading to an end of the single currency Euro zone is still an unkown that is not on the immediate horizon. We believe that this situation will result in continued weakness in the Euro and European equities so we will monitor assets in the Euro zone for entry points if we see significant pullbacks, however now is still not the time to step in, we believe there will be more uncertainty and lower entry points.

July 6 - Enercare (ECI) raised to buy from hold at Desjardins. This is a stock we have owned for a long time and recommend a full position for any portfolio. It has a great dividend (6%), low beta (0.36) and it is a stable business (home heating, air conditioning and other services along with sub-metering). The stock pulled back as an activist investor looking to takeover the company has been selling. The offer price was considered too low at a significant premium to the current price so this represents a great entry point. We agree the offer was too low) but are happy holding this company long-term and would actually prefer it to a takeover because there is no similar company in the Canadian space that we could roll the profits into.

Up 2.7% on a down day, still attractive here.

July 6 - Colabor Group (GCL) raised to outperform from sector perform at National Bank Financial. Trading at almost one quarter of its 52-week high this food sitributor/wholesaler has become an attractive trade on valuation, however after eliminating a previously high dividend we no longer see it as an attractive long-term holding.

Up an incredible 9.3% on a down day!

July 6 - Capstone Infrastructure (CSE) raised to outperform from market perform at RBC. Having pulled back near 52 week lows this is an attractive trade on a company that does have some potential. However, with almost a 10% dividend that is currently unsustainable as the company is losing money we see too much downside risk in this company to make it a full position holding. We only trade it, but would recommend an underweight position if you do want to hold it in hopes of a turnaround.

Up 4.3% on a down day!

July 3 - With American markets closed for an Independence Day long weekend volume and news is light today. No major analyst actions worth noting although Crescent Point Energy (CPG) did purchase privately held Coral Hill, of which they already owned 8.7%. Fortunately for shareholders such as ourselves this will be paid for with cash and shres, with another equity not needed (they obviously also had this one in the cards when they announced the Legacy acquisition and financing). We continue to view Crescent Point as one of the only plays in the energy sector that we would recommend a full position, and even a market overweight at these prices. Also today, Lighstream Resources (LTS) did a debt restructuring, which at first glance doesn't appear to help them significantly (and the market agrees tading flat to slightly down). We believe this company needs to be taken out (too much debt and the stock as fallen to under a dollar from a 52 week high of $8.57). Being a Bakken player, where Crescent Point has some of their best assets, this has long been considered a good fit.

July 2 - IGM Financial (IGM) upgraded from sector underperformer to sector performer by CIBC. To begin with, we do not invest in any mutual funds or have any assets held by a financial advisor. The reason we do not work for any institution is because they are commission based and therefore sales focused, pushing their own products in their own best interest. For knowledgeable investors there is no reason to allow others to control your money in high fee, non-transparent, underperforming investments. That being said, there is still a large portion of the population who cannot and will not be bothered to manage their own investments, so blindingly trusting an institution such as Investor's Group is still prevalent. They have taken steps to reduce their fees and they have shifted away from pressure sales more towards financial planning that may not necessarily mean loading up on their particular products. We agree with CIBC that this will improve customer retention and possibly help ease outflows and counter these with some inflows. Nobody wants to be constantly pressured by a salesman, have their own money locked up and face huge fees that as a result cause these investments to generally underperform. It is time for these institutions to adapt or become irrelevant and we believe IGM is open to and on the road to change. Trading at a 52 week low, a 5.5% dividend comfortably covered by earnings and a P/E of 13x this is an attractive entry point if you believe IGM can at least maintain their current market share.

A nice +1.75% day trade on this one.

July 2 - RBC has cut their Global Base Metals sector from marketweight to underweight and raised their Global Precious Metals sector from marketweight to overweight. Along with this change they have adjusted their global mining best ideas portfoilio, removing: Potash (POT), Stornoway Diamond (SWY), while adding Continental Gold (CNL), Dominion Diamond (DDC), Guyana Goldfields (GUY), and Labrador Iron Ore Royalty (LIF) . None of these are worth a trade on these best ideas portfoilio change, although we do hold and like Potash for the long-term (whether the K+S takeover is successful or not) and Labrador Iron Ore Royalty (LIF) does look attractive at these levels trading les than half the 52 week highs, with a 7% dividend, P/E of 10x and great margins.

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